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Oct 2022 DOI 10.14302/issn.2643-2811.jmbr-22-4258
Isea RaúlCorresponding author
Fundación Instituto de Estudios Avanzados, Hoyo de la Puerta, Baruta, Venezuela.
This work proposes a modification of a compartmental-type model based on the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) scheme to describe the dynamics of contagion by Covid-19 in any part of the world, including also the numerical and analytical calculation of the mantissa and the resolution of a partial differential equation system. As an example, the different incidents that occurred in Singapore, Spain and Venezuela are analyzed to demonstrate the usefulness of the methodology developed in this work that can be seamlessly extended to other regions.
May 2026 DOI 10.14302/issn.2641-4538.jphi-26-6161
J GonzalezCorresponding author
Objectives Motor fluctuations and non-motor disorders not manageable by first-line treatments in advanced Parkinson's disease require continuous dopaminergic stimulation strategies such as subcutaneous infusions of apomorphine (APO) or foslevodopa/foscarbidopa (FLD/FCD). A Budget Impact Analysis (BIA) was performed to estimate the cost difference between both treatments assuming equivalent clinical efficacy and safety. Material and methods The efficacy results of pivotal clinical trials at 12 and 52 weeks of treatment and the safety profile of APO vs FLD/FCD were compared, based on latest scientific publications and other available clinical data. A comparative BIA was performed, based on estimated annual drug treatment costs at Spanish published prices. Results The efficacy of APO (16 h/day) and FLD/FCD (24 h/day) in reduction of OFF hours (2.47 vs 2.75, 12 weeks; 3.66 vs 3.50, 52 weeks; respectively) and increase of ON hours without disabling dyskinesias (2.77 vs 2.72, 12 weeks; 3.31 vs 3.80, 52 weeks; respectively) could be considered clinically equivalent, as well as their safety profiles. However, a significant discrepancy is observed in the costs of the aforementioned alternatives. Considering published prices and the average dose reported in the literature, in Spain the annual cost of APO would be €13,980 compared to €55,198 for FLD/FCD. Consequently, the financial resources required for the treatment of FLD/FCD would enable the treatment of approximately three to four patients with APO. The BIA indicated the potential for annual savings in more than €2,500 million, considering a total target population of over 60,000 patients per year. Finally, an univariant sensitivity analysis was performed, considering a scenario in which the hospital acquisition cost of FLD/FCD decreased between 20%-30% (€44,159- €38,638/year). In this scenario, the total annual savings range between €1,875-€1,532 million per year. Conclusions Overall APO is more efficient than FLD/FCD, as it provides similar clinical efficacy at a lower treatment cost. The selection of an appropriate treatment option is to be determined by clinical criteria and patient characteristics, but cost evaluation should be considered to select the most cost-effective therapeutic option.
Jan 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3383
Zhao BinCorresponding author
School of Science, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
With the spread of the new coronavirus around the world, governments of various countries have begun to use the mathematical modeling method to construct some virus transmission models assessing the risks of spatial spread of the new coronavirus COVID-19, while carrying out epidemic prevention work, and then calculate the inflection point for better prevention and control of epidemic transmission. This work analyzes the spread of the new coronavirus in China, Italy, Germany, Spain, and France, and explores the quantitative relationship between the growth rate of the number of new coronavirus infections and time. In investigating the dynamics of a disease such as COVID-19, its mathematical representation can be constructed at many levels of details, guided by the questions the model tries to help answer. Mathematical sophistication may have to yield to a more pragmatic approach closer to the ability to make predictions that inform public health policies. Background In December 2019 , the first Chinese patients with pneumonia of unknown cause is China admitted to hospital in Wuhan, Hubei Jinyintan , since then, COVID-19 in the rapid expansion of China Wuhan, Hubei, in a few months time, COVID-19 is Soon it spread to a total of 34 provincial-level administrative regions in China and neighboring countries, and Hubei Province immediately became the hardest hit by the new coronavirus. In an emergency situation, we strive to establish an accurate infectious disease retardation growth model to predict the development and propagation of COVID-19, and on this basis, make some short-term effective predictions. The construction of this model has Relevant departments are helpful for the prevention and monitoring of the new coronavirus, and also strive for more time for the clinical trials of Chinese researchers and the research on vaccines against the virus to eliminate the new corona virus as soon as possible. Methods According to the original data change law, Establish a Logistic growth model, we collect and compare and integrate the spread of COVID-19 in China, Italy, France, Spain and Germany, record the virus transmission trend among people in each country and the protest measures of relevant government departments. Findings Based on the analysis results of the Logistic model model, the Logistic model has a good fitting effect on the actual cumulative number of confirmed cases, which can bring a better effect to the prediction of the epidemic situation and the prevention and control of the epidemic situation. Interpretation In the early stage of the epidemic, due to inadequate anti-epidemic measures in various countries, the epidemic situation in various countries spread rapidly. However, with the gradual understanding of COVI D -19, the epidemic situation began to be gradually controlled, thereby retarding growth
Oct 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3587
Isea RaúlCorresponding author
Fundación Instituto de Estudios Avanzados, Hoyo de la Puerta, Baruta. Venezuela.
The work analyzes the dynamics of transmission of infections by the new coronavirus in twelve European countries, including France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Romania, Czech Republic, and Portugal, whose data from contagion were obtained by Johns Hopkins University until September 24, 2020. The study confirmed that this new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) surprised all the countries of the world that had to improve their public health policies to confront this disease according to the results obtained from the calculation of the mantissa. Although the countries were able to improve their policies after the first wave of contagion, Spain and France have the highest proportion of cases that stand out significantly with the rest of the countries in the second wave of infections that the world faces again. Likewise, the beginning of the epidemic outbreak was determined, which could help to track the spread of the disease through European countries (not the first case registered in each country), from which it can be inferred that the outbreak begins in Italy and later the rebound begins in Germany, France, and Spain. Within days, it significantly affects Greece and Austria, reaching Denmark, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Croatia. Finally, the number of people who must be vaccinated to counteract the advance of Covid-19 in these European countries was determined based on the calculation of the Effective Reproductive Number, Rt. The number of people that would have to be vaccinated in all these countries to counteract this disease sums up to 206.830.361.
Jul 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3453
Isea RaulCorresponding author
Fundación Instituto de Estudios Avanzados IDEA, Hoyo de la Puerta, Baruta, Venezuela
The present work analyzes the registered cases of Covid-19 throughout the world according the data registered at Johns Hopkins University. We selected 15 countries to analyze their data. In alphabetical order the countries are: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, Portugal, Spain, United States and Venezuela. With this information, three different studies were carried out. First, the data was validated using Benford's Law which is based on forensic techniques that allow us to guarantee the integrity of the information. Later, we calculated the value of the basic reproduction number (R0), ie., the number of secondary host infections caused by one primary host infection that helps us to determine if a country has an outbreak of Covid-19. Finally, we show that the best representation for the change in the number of cases in the time is to calculate the mantissa value, ie., the floating number obtained from the logarithm of the data.
Nov 2016 DOI 10.14302/issn.2474-3585.jpmc-16-1198
Dolores Gil-Llario M.Corresponding author
Department of Educational and Developmental Psychology. University of Valencia.
Spain is one of the countries with the highest incidence of HIV within the European Union. Multiple and complex factors influence HIV infection in young people. This study aims to determine the influence of sexual sensation seeking, sexual compulsivity and perceived sexual pleasure variables in condom use. A total of 424 heterosexual youth were evaluated (M age = 20.62; SD = 2.62) distributed into a risk group (60.7%) and a no-risk group (39.3%). Sexual Sensation Seeking Scale, AIDS Prevention Questionnaire, Sexual Compulsivity Scale, and Sexual Pleasure Perceived Scale were administered. Results indicate statistically significant differences in sexual sensation seeking (p=.001), failure to control sexual impulses (p=.030), perceived sexual pleasure with a condom (p=.027) and without a condom (p=.001). The regression analysis revealed that three factors explained about 14% of the variance in condom use: sexual sensation seeking and sexual pleasure perceived without a condom (risk factors), and sexual pleasure perceived with a condom (protective factor). It is necessary to incorporate these variables into HIV prevention programs to reduce the number of infections in young people.